Solar Panel Payback Calculator
A 6 kW system at $2.80/W costs $16,800, makes about 8,400 kWh a year, and saves about $1,338.96 a year at 15.94¢/kWh — a 12.5-year payback with no federal credit. With the old 30% credit it would have been 8.8 years. That credit is gone.
Your solar payback
Solar payback after the 30% credit ended
The headline change for 2026: the federal 30% credit (§25D) ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025. A 6 kW system that would have cost $11,760 after the credit now costs the full $16,800 — and the payback stretches from 8.8 years to 12.5 years at Texas rates. That is the real number now, and this calculator defaults to it.
Simple payback is net cost ÷ yearly savings. Yearly savings is production (kW × kWh per kW) × your electricity rate. Texas helps on production — about 1,400 kWh per kW per year is strong sun — but the 15.94¢ average rate is not high, so each kWh saved is worth less than in California or the Northeast.
Three things can still make solar pay: a high electricity rate (if you pay 20¢+ the payback shortens fast), high daytime use or an EV you charge at home (every solar kWh replaces a bought kWh), and a low installed price (get 2–3 quotes; $2.80/W is typical, not a floor).
What simple payback leaves out: panels degrade about 0.5% a year, inverters usually need replacing once in 25 years, financed systems pay interest, and electricity rates may rise — which would shorten the payback. If a salesperson quotes you a payback under 8 years in 2026, ask whether they included the expired 30% credit.
The EV $7,500 credit is gone too (§30D ended for purchases after Sep 30, 2025), so a solar-plus-EV pitch that bundles both credits is selling 2025 math in 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 30% federal solar credit really gone?
Yes. The §25D residential clean-energy credit ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025, under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-21). Systems installed in 2025 or earlier can still claim it; new installs cannot.
What is a good payback period for solar in Texas?
At current rules, 10–13 years is typical for a well-sited Texas system at $2.80/W. Under 10 years is good; over 15 years means the price is high, the roof is shaded, or your rate is low.
Does solar still make sense without the credit?
It can — if your rate is high, you use a lot of daytime power or charge an EV at home, and the installed price is competitive. Run your own numbers here first, then get 2–3 local quotes before signing anything.
Do I need a battery?
Not for payback. A battery adds $8,000–$12,000 and mainly buys backup power during outages, not bill savings — Texas net metering is limited, so excess solar is not worth as much as the power you use yourself.
More energy tools
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Visit →Internal links only — no sponsorship. Tax law changes; confirm the current credit rules with a tax professional.
Solar accessories
ZOUPW 100W Portable Solar Panel
Small portable panel — a low-cost way to learn how solar works before committing to a roof.
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Solar path lights — no wiring, no electric bill, and a feel for what a panel produces.
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